Research
Macro letters and equity research, newest first. Each piece is summarised here with its key points, and its file is here to download.
Treasury buybacks can repair liquidity. They cannot repair the fiscal path.
The Federal Reserve is maintaining a restrictive policy stance while the Treasury expands buybacks in longer-dated securities. This letter separates monetary policy from debt-management operations and examines whether Treasury buybacks can improve market functioning without resolving the structural fiscal imbalance. It also assesses real term premia, energy risks involving Iran, marginal Treasury demand from China and Japan, and the implications for gold and Bitcoin.
By Matheus BaltharThis macro letter examines how resilient U.S. demand and elevated long-term yields affect asset pricing, what Blue Owl's redemption requests reveal about liquidity risk in private credit, and how geopolitical and commodity shocks transmit into Brazilian assets. It concludes with implications for duration, Brazilian risk assets and Bitcoin, together with explicit conditions that would change the assessment.
By Matheus BaltharSegment forecasts, DCF valuation and trading comparables
This historical valuation workbook analyses Samsung Electronics through segment-level operating forecasts, a discounted cash-flow model, trading comparables and a weighted-average cost of capital calculation. The model separates the DX, DS, Samsung Display and Harman businesses and documents the assumptions used to estimate revenue growth, operating profitability and intrinsic value as of December 2024.
By Apoena Research ArchiveResearch published here is the author's own analysis, for information and education. It is not investment advice, an offer of financial products or an offer to manage third-party capital.